Key Points
- Natural gas prices rallied sharply as traders reacted to forecasts of an Arctic cold front boosting heating demand across the US East Coast and Midwest.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil settled below the $60.00 per barrel level amid trader focus on US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats against multiple trading partners.
- Brent crude oil climbed back above the $64.00 per barrel level following a rebound from session lows.
- Natural gas futures gapped higher, with front-month contracts jumping from near $3.10/MMBtu to around $3.50–$3.59, a gain of 13–16%.
- A successful test of natural gas resistance at $3.70–$3.75 could push prices towards the next resistance in the $3.95–$4.00 range.
- Trump’s tariff threats include 25% on countries trading with Iran, 10% on several European nations linked to Greenland dispute, and broader warnings on Russia, China, and India.
- Colder weather forecasts for late January (January 26 to February 1) reignited heating demand expectations, prompting short covering in natural gas markets.
- WTI traded around $59.70–$59.83 recently, extending gains amid supply fears from tariffs, while Brent hit $64.01–$64.32.
- Market analysts view the natural gas rally as tactical, driven by weather shifts and positioning, rather than structural undersupply.
- Broader concerns include EU gas storage at 50% (below five-year average of 65%), Iranian unrest calming, and potential Russian infrastructure risks.
North London (Commodity Markets Desk), FXEmpire, January 20, 2026 – Natural gas prices soared in volatile trading as an Arctic cold front forecast sparked a demand surge, while WTI crude dipped below $60 per barrel and Brent rebounded above $64 amid evaluations of President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats, according to multiple market reports.
Why Did Natural Gas Prices Rally Sharply?
As reported by James Hyerczyk of FXEmpire, natural gas futures gapped higher due to an Arctic cold front extending to lower Florida, creating an unexpected heating demand surge, with bulls eyeing $4.00. Front-month Natural Gas (NG=F) snapped from a 13-week low near $3.10 per MMBtu back to roughly $3.50–$3.59, marking a daily gain of 13–16%, TradingNews analysts noted, attributing the move to a sudden shift in late-January weather models showing Arctic air sweeping the East Coast and Midwest between January 26 and February 1. This lifted heating load and power burn expectations just as the market had dismissed winter risks, forcing short covering from oversold levels.
FXLeaders reported that natural gas prices spiked on Arctic forecasts, describing it as a relief rally likely short-term, with prices rebounding over 20% in one session from near $3.00/MMBtu after falling from $5.00. James Hyerczyk of FXEmpire further stated that a successful test of resistance at $3.70–$3.75 will push natural gas towards the next resistance at $3.95–$4.00. Trading Economics confirmed natural gas at 3.57 USD/MMBtu on January 20, down slightly 0.42% but rebounding from lows, with forecasts at 3.24 by quarter-end and 3.82 in 12 months. Analysts at TradingNews described the rally as tactical, not structural, with prices retracing a prior dip.
What Impacted WTI Oil Prices Below $60?
WTI oil settled below $60.00 as traders zeroed in on Trump’s tariff threats, per FXEmpire forecasts. OctaFX reported WTI collapsing below $60 for the first time since May, tumbling over 4% in its worst day since June, after Trump reignited US-China trade war fears with fresh tariff threats, as China tightens rare mineral exports. Anadolu Agency noted US benchmark WTI fell 0.7% to $64.13 (in an earlier session), pressured by Trump’s warnings of “very heavy” sanctions on Russian oil flows unless Moscow and Kyiv negotiate directly. Trump added,
“That’s going to be up to them. It takes two to tango, I always say, and they should meet.”
FXStreet detailed WTI reaching six-week highs near $60.00 (around $59.70) on supply fears from US tariffs targeting Iran’s trading partners, with Trump announcing 25% tariffs effective immediately amid Iranian protests. DMarketForces observed WTI at $59.83, up 0.8% from $59.35, amid broader surges. These threats soured sentiment amid a US government shutdown extension, per OctaFX.
How Did Brent Oil Rebound Above $64?
Brent oil climbed above $64.00, rebounding from lows, as FXEmpire highlighted. DMarketForces reported Brent hitting $64.01, up 0.7% from $63.55, on concerns including Iran supply disruptions and Venezuela uncertainties. The Hindu BusinessLine stated March Brent at $64.31, up 0.28%, as markets analysed Trump’s European tariff threats.
Anadolu Agency (older context but directional) noted Brent sustaining above $64.32 post-Saudi events, though current dynamics tie to tariffs. Trading Economics pegged Brent at 63.76 on January 20, down 0.48% but up 2.72% monthly. BloombergNEF warned Brent could average $55 in 2026 but spike to $91 in Q4 if Iran disruptions persist, post-Trump’s 25% tariff on Iran’s partners risking China’s flows.about.​
What Are Trump’s Tariff Threats Causing Market Volatility?
Trump’s tariffs dominate oil sentiment. Economies.com detailed weekend threats of 10% tariffs from February 1 on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, and Britain until US can buy Greenland, escalating disputes. John Evans of PVM Oil Associates noted markets watching Russian infrastructure risks alongside cold weather and Iran. EU ambassadors agreed to dissuade Trump while preparing retaliation.​
AA.com.tr covered Russia sanctions threats raising economic fallout fears. FXStreet quoted Trump on 25% tariffs on Iran traders amid protests. FXEmpire’s Muhammad Umair discussed China demand strength offsetting tariffs, plus threats on India over Russian oil. BNEF highlighted call skew spikes post-January 12 announcement.
Why Is the Natural Gas Rally Seen as Temporary?
TradingNews analysts called it a bounce from short covering, not regime change, with prices back to a week ago. FXLeaders echoed short-term reaction despite LNG demand renewal. ING Think via Hindu BusinessLine noted EU storage at 50% vs 65% average, with cold weather bullish, but MCX natural gas up 10.66% to ₹310.30. Nasdaq/FXEmpire key points: 14.52% rise due to severe cold outpacing supply.​
What Are the Technical Outlooks for These Commodities?
For natural gas, bulls eye $4.00 post-$3.70–$3.75 test, per Hyerczyk. TradingNews sees bullish bias, buy dips above $3.70, targeting $5.00–$5.20. Oil faces volatility from tariffs, with WTI/Brent sensitive to supply risks. Overall, weather supports gas short-term, tariffs pressure oil demand long-term.
