Who Will Win Holborn and St Pancras By-Election North London 2026

Key Points

• Bookmakers’ Favourites: Labour Party candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali enters the race as the 1-10 favourite, while Green Party leader Zack Polanski sits at 6-1, with Workers Party of Britain leader George Galloway priced between 66-1 and 100-1.
• High-Profile Battleground: Hundreds of activists from both the Green Party and the Labour Party have descended upon the north London constituency ahead of the polling day on 8 October 2026.
• Left-Wing Endorsements: Former independent candidate Andrew Feinstein, who secured 7,312 votes in the 2024 general election, along with former Galloway Chief of Staff James Giles, has endorsed Zack Polanski.
• Campaign Absences: A hustings hosted by the Camden Muslim Network saw only Green leader Zack Polanski and Liberal Democrat candidate Patrick Stillman attend, after Labour’s team stated Abdi-Wali had a prior commitment.
• High-Stakes Test: The contest marks the first parliamentary by-election under Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s party leadership following the departure of former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Holborn (North London News) September 25, 2026 – Believe the bookies and it is a done deal: Labour will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali is the 1-10 favourite, followed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski on 6-1, then George Galloway between 66-1 and 100-1, who could significantly influence the election’s outcome. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats are into cricket score odds.

Why Is the Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Drawing National Attention?

Hundreds of Green Party and Labour activists are pouring into the north London constituency for what is shaping up to be a high-stakes London election showdown.

As reported by Tristan Kirk of the London Standard, politics, much like sport, is fundamentally driven by momentum, and the current dynamic could shift prior to polling day on 8 October. As noted in the reporting, a look at the previous vote tallies explains why Green Party leader Zack Polanski has taken the high-profile gamble of entering the contest in Holborn and St Pancras.

During the 2024 general election, the Labour Party held the seat with a majority of 11,572 votes. Former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer secured 18,884 votes, with the Green Party finishing in third place on 4,030 votes. While a superficial look at those figures suggests a distant chance for the Greens, independent pro-Palestine candidate Andrew Feinstein achieved 7,312 votes in the same election.

As documented by the London Standard, Feinstein has formally urged his previous supporters to back Polanski. If the majority of those voters align with Polanski, it could significantly enhance his prospects of mounting a strong challenge to Labour, or potentially securing an upset victory.

How Are Key Endorsements and Oppositions Reshaping the Campaign?

The campaign has seen shifting alliances across the left of the political spectrum.

As reported by Middle East Eye, former MP Chris Williamson resigned as deputy leader of the Workers Party of Britain in explicit protest against George Galloway’s decision to stand in the constituency. Williamson publicly called on Galloway to step aside and support Polanski’s bid. Furthermore, James Giles, who acted as Galloway’s Chief of Staff during his tenure as the MP for Rochdale, also endorsed Polanski over his former employer.

According to reporting from the London Standard, the Green Party’s ground operation kicked off immediately, knocking on nearly 1,500 doors in the first three days following the announcement of the vacancy. Polanski has also received the formal endorsement of the Camden People’s Alliance after committing to key pledges surrounding social housing, anti-austerity measures, trade union support, and opposing the conflict in Gaza.

Language choices in the campaign have also sparked public debate. As reported by BBC News and covered by the London Standard, Polanski released digital campaign videos in Urdu, French, and Bengali. Conservative MP Katie Lam criticised the multi-lingual outreach, stating:

“When candidates campaign in a foreign language … it makes it impossible to hold our would-be representatives to account. We must ban this practice”.

Defending the strategy, Green Party representatives countered that “democracy does not discriminate by language spoken”.

What Impact Are Local Hustings and Candidate Profiles Having on Voters?

Candidate selection and public appearances have become central focal points in the borough.

As detailed by Middle East Eye, Labour selected Sagal Abdi-Wali—the leader of Camden London Borough Council and an ally of Keir Starmer—following a shortlist that included councillors Camron Aref-Adib and Nasrine Djemai. However, Middle East Eye reported that Abdi-Wali faces criticism from local pro-Palestine activists due to Camden Council’s resistance to calls to divest from companies operating in Israel.

Attendance at community hustings has highlighted contrasts in campaign approaches. As reported by Middle East Eye, a campaign hustings organised by the Camden Muslim Network at a local art gallery was attended only by Green candidate Zack Polanski and Liberal Democrat candidate Patrick Stillman. Event organisers informed reporters that Labour’s campaign team stated Abdi-Wali was unable to attend due to a prior engagement.

Meanwhile, pollsters caution against declaring an early result. As reported by Channel 4 News, Luke Tryl of More in Common observed that while Labour starts as the clear favourite, “when party leaders stand themselves in by-election contests, the candidate really matters”.

Background of the Particular Development

The Holborn and St Pancras constituency, located in central and north London, encompasses areas of striking economic contrast, ranging from affluent streets in Highgate and Bloomsbury to areas of high social housing density in Somers Town and Regent’s Park. Historically, the seat has been a solid Labour stronghold. It was represented for decades by Frank Dobson before being won by Keir Starmer in 2015. Starmer held the seat through four consecutive general elections, serving as MP while leading the opposition and subsequently becoming Prime Minister.

The current by-election was triggered following Starmer’s resignation from Parliament. The timing coincides with broader structural shifts within the Labour Party, following Andy Burnham’s assumption of the party leadership. In the 2026 Camden London Borough Council local elections, Labour secured 32.8% of the popular vote, while the Green Party reached 27.1%, demonstrating a narrowing gap in the local electorate prior to this parliamentary contest.

Prediction: How This Development Can Affect the Local Electorate and Political Strategy

The outcome of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election carries direct implications for residents, local community groups, and national political strategists.

For the local electorate in Camden and Holborn, a competitive race between Labour and the Green Party ensures that hyper-local issues—such as council housing maintenance, local environmental initiatives, low-traffic neighbourhoods, and municipal divestment policies—will remain under intense scrutiny. If the Green Party achieves a high vote share or wins the seat, it will likely pressure the local Camden Council to re-evaluate its current social housing and procurement policies to prevent further erosion of its base.

For the broader electorate and Labour strategists, this election serves as an indicator of whether the party can maintain its dominant grip over urban London strongholds amid challenges from progressive and left-leaning opponents. A narrow victory or defeat for Labour would signal to national policymakers that urban voters cannot be taken for granted, potentially forcing parliamentary parties to adapt their platforms on international policy, environmental regulations, and local public services ahead of upcoming electoral tests.