Arsenal vs Chelsea Carabao Cup Semi: Preview, News, Prediction

Key Points

• Arsenal hold a slender one-goal advantage from the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, thanks to goals from Ben White, Viktor Gyokeres, and Martin Zubimendi, aided by Chelsea errors.
• Chelsea fought back with a second-half brace from Alejandro Garnacho, keeping the tie alive and psychologically balanced ahead of the return leg at the Emirates Stadium.
• The match is finely poised, with a place in the Carabao Cup final at stake, featuring unfamiliar tension in this classic north London rivalry.
• Chelsea show early momentum under manager Liam Rosenior, with recent come-from-behind wins against Napoli and West Ham, indicating comfort in chaotic games.
• Arsenal have mixed form: a heavy win over Leeds boosted confidence, but defeats to Kairat and Manchester United highlight home vulnerabilities.
• Arsenal injury concerns: Bukayo Saka withdrew late against Leeds (status monitored); Mikel Merino out for surgery on suspected broken foot bone; Max Dowman absent.
• Chelsea absences: Jamie Gittens injured (hamstring, extent unknown); Estevao on compassionate leave in Brazil; Tosin Adarabioyo, Dario Essugo, Romeo Lavia, and Levi Colwill sidelined.
• First leg lurched between control and chaos, leaving the aggregate delicately balanced rather than decisive for Arsenal.

Arsenal, North London – OneFootball reports on the eagerly anticipated return leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final between Arsenal and Chelsea on Tuesday, February 3, 2026. (North London News) February 3, 2026 – Arsenal welcome Chelsea to the Emirates Stadium tonight with a narrow one-goal lead from the first leg, setting the stage for a tense battle where a place in the Wembley final hangs in the balance. The Gunners’ advantage, forged through strikes from Ben White, Viktor Gyokeres, and Martin Zubimendi, feels useful yet far from secure after Alejandro Garnacho’s second-half brace kept Chelsea very much in contention. This classic rivalry, often charged with familiarity, now carries an unfamiliar edge of uncertainty, as both sides navigate injuries, form fluctuations, and high stakes just weeks away from potentially lifting the trophy.

The first leg encapsulated the drama of cup football, swinging from Arsenal’s control to Chelsea’s chaos-induced fightback. As detailed in OneFootball’s preview, the match “lurched between control and chaos,” leaving the tie delicately poised rather than a comfortable procession for Mikel Arteta’s men.

What Made the First Leg So Unpredictable?

The opening encounter at Stamford Bridge showcased Arsenal’s clinical edge early on, capitalising on Chelsea defensive lapses. Ben White opened the scoring, followed by goals from Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Zubimendi, with OneFootball attributing these to

“errors that Chelsea will be desperate not to repeat.”

Chelsea’s response came via Alejandro Garnacho, whose second-half brace – described as ensuring

“the tie remains alive, and perhaps more psychologically so than the aggregate scoreline suggests”

– injected fresh momentum into Liam Rosenior’s project.

As reported by OneFootball’s coverage, Arsenal’s lead is “useful rather than decisive,” underscoring the psychological boost Garnacho’s goals provided. No other sources contradict this account, confirming the 3-2 aggregate scoreline positions tonight’s Emirates clash as a genuine 50-50 proposition.

How Has Chelsea’s Momentum Shifted Under Liam Rosenior?

Chelsea arrive in north London buoyed by nascent signs of progress under new manager Liam Rosenior. OneFootball highlights “early signs of momentum,” noting a “collective buy-in” despite tactical looseness. Recent victories against Napoli and West Ham – both secured from behind – reinforce this narrative of a squad thriving in turbulence.

“There is still a sense of tactical looseness, but also of collective buy-in, a team willing to absorb disorder if it brings opportunity,” states the OneFootball preview. These results suggest Chelsea could channel first-leg resilience into an upset, especially with Garnacho’s form providing a focal point.

What Vulnerabilities Have Arsenal Shown Recently?

Arsenal’s path to this semi-final has not been straightforward. While a heavy win over Leeds restored confidence, defeats to Kairat and Manchester United serve as stark reminders of frailty. OneFootball notes that Arsenal “have shown hints of vulnerability,” adding that

“home form, while impressive, is not inviolable.”

In a tie like this, such inconsistencies could prove costly at the Emirates, where comfort rarely endures against a hungry Chelsea side.

Which Injuries Are Shaping Arsenal’s Team Selection?

Arsenal head into the match grappling with key absences. Bukayo Saka’s status remains uncertain after he “withdrew late against Leeds,” with the club monitoring him closely. Mikel Merino will definitely miss out, undergoing surgery on a suspected broken bone in his foot, while Max Dowman remains sidelined.

OneFootball confirms these concerns influence Mikel Arteta’s selections, potentially forcing reliance on squad depth in wide areas and midfield.

What Blows Is Chelsea Dealing With in Defence and Attack?

Chelsea’s injury list is lengthy, compounding their semi-final challenge. Manager Liam Rosenior confirmed Jamie Gittens’ hamstring injury from the West Ham game: “Jamie unfortunately felt his hamstring,” said Rosenior.

“I don’t know the extent of the injury. It’s a real shame for him,”

as quoted directly by OneFootball.

Additionally, Estevao is unavailable due to compassionate leave in Brazil. Long-term absentees include Tosin Adarabioyo, Dario Essugo, Romeo Lavia, and Levi Colwill, stripping Chelsea of defensive solidity and midfield options. OneFootball emphasises these gaps, noting Chelsea’s desperation to avoid first-leg errors.

Who Are the Key Players to Watch Tonight?

For Arsenal, Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Zubimendi reprise their first-leg heroics, while Ben White’s versatility could be pivotal if Saka falters. Chelsea pin hopes on Alejandro Garnacho, whose brace turned the tie, alongside any tactical tweaks from Rosenior.

OneFootball’s preview spotlights these figures, with Garnacho’s psychological edge potentially outweighing the scoreline.

How Might Tactics Define This Finely Poised Tie?

Arsenal will likely seek to control possession at home, leveraging their first-leg efficiency while protecting against counter-attacks. Chelsea, comfortable in chaos per OneFootball, may absorb pressure and strike via transitions, mirroring their Napoli and West Ham triumphs.

Rosenior’s willingness to embrace disorder contrasts Arteta’s structured approach, promising a tactical chess match.

What Is the Score Prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Balancing Arsenal’s home advantage and slim lead against Chelsea’s momentum and fightback spirit, a narrow Arsenal progression seems likely. OneFootball’s analysis suggests a 2-1 win for the Gunners in the second leg, advancing 5-3 on aggregate. However, Garnacho’s form introduces upset potential – a 1-1 draw forcing penalties cannot be ruled out.

This prediction accounts for injuries tilting midfield battles and Chelsea’s chaos tolerance clashing with Arsenal’s vulnerabilities.

Why Does This Match Matter in the Bigger Picture?

A Wembley final berth elevates this beyond rivalry bragging rights. Arsenal eye silverware to bolster their season, while Chelsea’s progression validates Rosenior’s early tenure. OneFootball frames it as “a familiar pairing dressed in unfamiliar tension,” capturing the stakes amid form swings and absences.

North London pulses with anticipation as these giants reconvene.

Broader Context: Carabao Cup Semi-Final History

This pairing evokes past epics, though current dynamics differ with Rosenior’s influence and injury woes. Arsenal’s Emirates record in knockouts bolsters optimism, but Chelsea’s recent resilience echoes resilient cup runs.

OneFootball’s comprehensive preview ensures no detail escapes, from Garnacho’s brace to Merino’s surgery.