Key Points
- Paul Higham, a betting expert, recommends backing Arsenal (the Gunners) to win the North London derby against Tottenham, citing their superior form and organisation under manager Mikel Arteta.
- Higham proposes a 4/1 Bet Builder tip that includes Arsenal victory combined with over 2.5 goals in the match, highlighting Arsenal’s attacking prowess and Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities.
- The fixture is set for Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in North London, with kick-off scheduled for 16:30 UTC on 22 February 2026, as part of the English Premier League 2025-2026 season.
- Tottenham face injury concerns, including doubts over Pape Matar Sarr (knock) and Dominic Solanke (ankle, out until late February), while their home form has been poor with only one win in recent matches.
- Arsenal are tipped as strong favourites by multiple sources, with predictions giving them a 57% win probability; they have won the last three derbies and boast a solid away record.
- Betting markets show Arsenal at odds around 1.61 to win, with both teams to score at 11/10 and over 2.5 goals commonly expected due to recent high-scoring trends in derbies.
- Tottenham’s new manager Tudor is making his debut, aiming to stave off relegation fears amid an injury crisis and appalling home record, but analysts doubt their chances against title-chasing Arsenal.
- As reported by Phil McNulty, BBC chief football writer, the derby tests Arsenal’s “bottle” amid their title bid, while Tottenham blew prior chances to dominate North London.
- Stats previews note Arsenal’s high set-piece goal conversion (50% excluding penalties) and Tottenham’s resilience away but struggles at home, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded recently.
- Sky Sports previews emphasise no fresh injuries for Tottenham but ongoing absences like Sergio Reguilon and Oliver Skipp; Arsenal expected to field a strong squad including Saka and Odegaard.
Tottenham Hotspur (North London News) February 21, 2026 – Betting expert Paul Higham of Sporting Life has urged punters to back Arsenal and over 2.5 goals in a lucrative 4/1 Bet Builder for Sunday’s high-stakes North London derby against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.
- Key Points
- What Makes Arsenal the Favourites in This Derby?
- Why Expect Goals in the North London Derby?
- What Are the Team News and Injury Updates?
- Tottenham’s Predicted Lineup?
- Arsenal’s Predicted Lineup?
- How Have Recent Form and Stats Shaped Predictions?
- What Do Experts Say About Tottenham’s Chances?
- What Betting Markets Are Recommended?
- Historical Context: Arsenal’s Derby Dominance?
- Where and How to Watch the Match?
The recommendation comes amid Arsenal’s dominant recent record over their rivals, having won the last three encounters, including a potential fourth consecutive victory at Spurs’ home ground. Higham highlights Arsenal’s organisation under Mikel Arteta, contrasting it with Tottenham’s struggles, as the Gunners chase the title while Spurs battle relegation fears under new manager Tudor.
What Makes Arsenal the Favourites in This Derby?
Arsenal enter the match with strong momentum, reacting well to in-game changes and creating high pressure, according to detailed previews from Escored.com. As noted by Sports Mole’s preview team, the Gunners have faith in adding “a fresh lick of red paint to North London” despite Tottenham’s motivation to derail their title bid.
Paul Higham specifically points to Arsenal’s ability to capitalise on Tottenham’s early-season-like struggles, recommending a straight Arsenal win at 7/5 in past analyses that align with current form. Opta stats via Betfair reinforce this, showing Arsenal scoring 50% of goals from set-pieces (excluding penalties), higher than any Premier League side.
BBC’s Phil McNulty describes the fixture as a “test of the Gunners’ bottle,” underscoring their psychological edge after recent derby successes.
Why Expect Goals in the North London Derby?
Higham’s Bet Builder at 4/1 combines Arsenal’s win with over 2.5 goals, banking on both teams’ attacking tendencies. Footy Accumulators’ mega bet builder tips echo this, predicting over 2.5 goals given Arsenal’s fire despite a recent blip.
Both teams to score stands at 11/10 per Betfair’s Opta analysis, as it has happened in five of Tottenham’s matches this season, though only three for Arsenal. SportsGambler’s preview notes Tottenham averaging 1.1 goals per game lately, with Arsenal at 1.7 away, suggesting a lively affair.
As reported by Goal.com’s analysts, Tottenham’s defensive reshuffles and Arsenal’s fluency point to goals, especially with Spurs vulnerable early.
What Are the Team News and Injury Updates?
Tottenham have no fresh injury worries but miss key players long-term: Sergio Reguilon (groin), Oliver Skipp (pubis), Matt Doherty and Japhet Tanganga (knee), per Sky Sports. Pape Matar Sarr is a doubt with a knock, and Dominic Solanke is out with an ankle issue until late February, as detailed by ESPN.
Arsenal’s provisional squad includes Leno, Ramsdale, Tomiyasu, Gabriel, White, Xhaka, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, and more, with eight players back from prior absences. The Analyst predicts Arsenal’s lineup with strong options like Bissouma, Gallagher, and Solanke for Spurs, but Arsenal’s depth prevails.
SportsGambler highlights Tottenham’s 47.5% average possession and 1.6 goals conceded per match, exacerbating their home woes.
Tottenham’s Predicted Lineup?
Expected Spurs XI: Vicario; Gray, Dragusin, van de Ven, Spence; Bissouma, Sarr; Gallagher, Simons, Kolo Muani, Solanke – though injuries may force changes, as per The Analyst.
Arsenal’s Predicted Lineup?
Gunners likely in 4-3-3: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli, drawing from Sports Mole and Sky previews.
How Have Recent Form and Stats Shaped Predictions?
Tottenham’s home form is dire: five losses, three wins, two draws in last 10, averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded. Away, they fare better with joint-most goals (12) scored, but this is a home test.
Arsenal are unbeaten in six derbies, winning to nil in seven of 11 league games this season. Sportytrader’s model gives them 57% win chance at 1.61 odds.
Goal.com laments Tottenham “blew their chance to rule north London,” with Arsenal eyeing a fourth straight win at the stadium.
What Do Experts Say About Tottenham’s Chances?
New boss Tudor seeks a debut win to fight relegation, but Sports Mole doubts it given Spurs’ injury crisis. Sky Sports notes Spurs relish underdog status but trends favour Arsenal at 2/5.
As per Betfred Insights, Tottenham’s away resilience (fewest goals conceded) offers hope, but Arsenal’s injuries are minor compared. Paul Higham backs Gunners to exploit Spurs’ woes.
What Betting Markets Are Recommended?
- Arsenal to win: 1.61 odds.
- Over 2.5 goals: Paired in Higham’s 4/1 builder.
- Both teams to score: 11/10.
- Richarlison 2+ shots: 4/7, per Opta.
- Arsenal win to nil: 13/10.
TipMan advises Arsenal win and over 2.5 goals for their bet builder.
Historical Context: Arsenal’s Derby Dominance?
Arsenal won 2-1 in March 2021 and 3-1 in September 2021, their best run since 1987-1989 (five straight). Tottenham last beat Arsenal 2-0 at old White Hart Lane, but Spurs have only two Emirates wins recently.
BBC’s McNulty notes the disparity has “never been more pronounced,” with North London “poised to be red”.
Where and How to Watch the Match?
Kick-off 16:30 UTC at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, live on Sky Sports with highlights on digital platforms post-match. Escored confirms timings.
