After a devastating defeat at the Emirates, Arsenal’s grip on the Premier League trophy has become shaky, with Manchester City creeping up on them in the points. With equal points, an equal goal difference and a smaller amount of goals scored, Arsenal now sit in second in the Premier League table. To take back the top spot, they must recover, and quickly.
The Loss at the Etihad
On April 19th, the Gunners met their title competitors Manchester City at home in what has been widely regarded as the biggest fixture of the season. The Gunners sought a return to glory after a back-to-back loss and draw, aiming to assert their dominance over their rivals in this season-defining fixture.
Manchester City starting XI: 4-2-3-1 formation. Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Khusanov, Guéhi, O’Reilly, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Semenyo, Cherki, Doku, Haaland. Arsenal starting XI: 4-3-3 formation. Raya, Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Hincapié, Ødegaard, Zubimendi, Rice, Madeuke, Havertz, Eze.
Cherki opened up the scoresheet, scoring the first goal of the game in the first half. However, immediately after, Arsenal striker Havertz capitalised on a fatal error from Manchester City goalkeeper Donnarumma, equalising for the Gunners in just two minutes. Manchester City maintained momentum in the first half, but in the second half, there were some great chances from both Eze and Havertz, but both fell just short of finding the back of the net. Despite the defense’s best efforts, Haaland managed to score Manchester City’s second goal, snatching the last of Arsenal’s points with what was the last goal of the match.
Manchester City won over Arsenal in terms of possession, shots on target, pass accuracy and percentage of tackles won, but Arsenal’s loss was influenced heavily by the near-miss chances which could have changed the momentum and outcome of the game. In his post-match interview, Arteta commented that he didn’t believe ‘there was any difference’ between his side and Pep Guardiola’s team, with an ‘element of luck’ playing into their defeat.
Arsenal’s Position in the Premier League
Manchester City played their game in-hand last night, defeating Burnley 1-0. Therefore, Manchester City and Arsenal now have equal points, as well as an equal goal difference. However, Manchester City have scored three more goals than Arsenal, meaning that for now, they occupy the top spot of the Premier League table. Given that they only managed to score one goal, their lead is not unsalvageable for Arteta’s side, although after leading the Premier League since October, Arsenal’s title chances are now under threat.
The Gunner’s next Premier League fixtures are as follows:
Arsenal vs Newcastle (H)
- Arsenal vs Fulham (H)
- West Ham vs Arsenal (A)
- Arsenal vs Burnley (H)
- Crystal Palace vs Arsenal (A)
Between Arsenal and Manchester City, the Gunners have the easier run of fixtures, with all of Manchester City’s fixtures mostly being with clubs from the top half of the table. However, Manchester City currently have momentum, with a five-game win streak across all competitions, while Arsenal have lost three of their last five fixtures, including the loss at the Etihad.
Other Leagues and Their Influence on the Premier League Title Race
Both Arsenal and Manchester City have their eyes on other trophies as well as the Premier League. Arsenal have advanced to the semi-finals of the Champions League, and will face Atlético Madrid on 29th April. Meanwhile, Manchester City target a domestic treble, with their FA Cup semi-final fixture with Southampton, who eliminated Arsenal, taking place on 25th April. Both teams potentially have the finals of their respective cups to consider in their Premier League charge.
Manchester City advancing to the FA Cup final, while it would benefit their team morale, would mean that their fixture for the FA Cup final would be on 16th May, in the run-up to the end of the Premier League. Playing in this final, with either a win or loss, would have its toll on the energy of the Manchester City players, as it is one extra fixture to play, and definitely not a fixture to disregard.
Given that Arsenal’s squad depth is one of the best in the Premier League, juggling both the Champions League semi-finals and Premier League fixtures should be manageable. If Arsenal proceed to the Champions League final, this would be the second time in the club’s history, meaning it would be massive for the team’s morale. The Champion’s League final will take place on May 30th, after the conclusion of the Premier League. This means that the outcome of the Champions League final, if Arsenal are to advance, will not impact their ability to perform in the Premier League.
However, either club’s elimination from their respective competitions would definitely dampen morale, meaning it is integral for Arsenal to advance in order to better their chances at winning the Premier League, to gain that incredible morale boost from being considered one of the top two teams in Europe.
Who to Play
Given Arsenal’s squad depth, there are so many options for Arteta to choose from to maximise his chances of success in the upcoming fixtures. So which players are essential to the lineup?
Goalkeeper David Raya is undoubtedly one of the core reasons for Arsenal’s dominance throughout the season. With a 67.1% save success rate and 15 clean sheets across the season, Raya is one of the integral pillars of Arsenal’s defense. His presence in goal will be important as Arsenal continue their Premier League charge.
Arsenal are notorious for their defensive lineup, with the two core players being their centrebacks, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães. Saliba excels in tackles and duels, having a 62.5% tackle success rate and a 57.4% duel success rate. Meanwhile, Gabriel’s height allows him to win aerial duels with more ease, with a 65.5% chance of winning them. Gabriel is also an exceptional presence during corners, putting the opposing team under pressure with his build. He has 3 goals to his name from this season. Needless to say, Saliba and Gabriel will be two of the starting players through to the end of the season.
For the midfield, although the 4-2-3-1 formation is common for Arsenal to use, with Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi occupying their CDM role, the team might consider using a 4-3-3 formation, allowing captain Martin Ødegaard to play in the midfield. His capabilities as a player are great – he has started 21 games, with an 84.5% pass success rate and has made 34 key passes across the season. His presence on the pitch as a natural leader for the rest of the team will be important to guide the team to victory and push for stronger wins to edge out Manchester City on goal difference.
As for the main striker of the team, Arteta rotates between playing Victor Gyökeres, Gabriel Martinelli and more recently, Kai Havertz after his return from injury. To compare conversion rates, the respective strikers have 66%, 5% and 11.1%. However, Gyökeres is a player who requires more service than Martinelli and Havertz, requiring wingers and midfielders to provide him with adequate opportunities to score. Therefore, against a strong defensive team, Gyökeres’s style of play might not be ideal, which is likely why Arteta rotates the three strikers. Given the statistics, Gyökeres should be the main striker in the lead-up to the end of the Premier League, but rotated with Havertz when necessary.
What now for Arsenal?
Arteta, after their defeat, commented that there are ‘still another five (games) to go,’ explaining that Arsenal must ‘reset and go again.’ At the end of his post-match interview after the defeat at the Etihad, Arteta stated that ‘there is still another five to go,’ meaning that Arsenal’s title dreams are not yet shattered. Arsenal’s next fixture is their Premier League home game against Newcastle on Saturday 25th April at 17:30, meaning Arteta and the Arsenal squad have minimal time to turn things back in their favour after losing such an important fixture.
